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諾基亞大降價(jià)中,微軟要不要趁機(jī)買入?

關(guān)鍵字:收購  諾基亞  微軟 

隨著微軟公司(Microsoft Corp.)持續(xù)致力于推動(dòng)Windows操作系統(tǒng),近來在市場(chǎng)上開始出現(xiàn)一陣陣微軟可能推出自有平板電腦和智能手機(jī)的猜測(cè)聲浪。

 

但我并不確定這些傳聞是否屬實(shí),甚至對(duì)于該公司是否可能收購諾基亞(Nokia Corp.)也不得而知-對(duì)于微軟公司而言,諾基亞可說是一家無線通訊設(shè)備領(lǐng)域的麻煩伙伴。事實(shí)上,如果微軟想要率先突破并使Windows OS更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,我真的覺得應(yīng)該要把諾基亞直接納入麾下。

 

微軟公司并不是硬件業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域的新手,而且比起惠普(Hewlett-Packard;HP)和Research in Motion(RIM)等冒然投入平板市場(chǎng)而遭受重大挫折的許多公司而言,微軟或許還更充分地做好了準(zhǔn)備。

 

雖然微軟主要是一家軟件公司以及PC操作系統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者,除了銷售鍵盤、鼠標(biāo)和品牌耳機(jī)等其它硬件以外,該公司也以Xbox建立自家公司成為游戲市場(chǎng)的主要廠商。該公司為Xbox打造廣泛的供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò),以便能輕易地利用于支持該公司可能在未來所引進(jìn)的其它設(shè)備。

 

有幾個(gè)理由讓我懷疑微軟可能沒得選擇,只得伴隨自家產(chǎn)品冒然地一頭栽進(jìn)通訊設(shè)備市場(chǎng)中。隨著昔日的合作伙伴轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦?jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,新的聯(lián)盟與支持系統(tǒng)在快速進(jìn)演進(jìn)的市場(chǎng)中穩(wěn)步前進(jìn),傳統(tǒng)的OEM樣貌正迅速發(fā)生改變中。

 

在電子制造服務(wù)(EMS)供貨商所具有的專業(yè)技術(shù),加上從像ARM這一類公司提供的現(xiàn)成IP以及從無晶圓廠芯片制造商的產(chǎn)品,再得到像臺(tái)積電這樣的半導(dǎo)體晶圓代工廠的支持,使得像Amazon、Barnes & Noble和Walmart等公司很容易就遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跳脫出其原有的傳統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)之外,進(jìn)而擁抱更多硬件產(chǎn)品。即使是被形容為一般OEM的公司也正擴(kuò)展其產(chǎn)品組合, 以因應(yīng)持續(xù)變化的客戶需求。

 

例如,像Google一樣的公司們已經(jīng)改變了我們對(duì)于服務(wù)供貨商的要求。例如,Google收購摩托羅拉行動(dòng)公司(Motorola Mobility Inc.)的事件仍回蕩在無線設(shè)備市場(chǎng),而其導(dǎo)入 Android 操作系統(tǒng)由于有利于三星電子(Samsung Electronics),導(dǎo)致了諾基亞的市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)地位被取代。雖然Google的搜尋引擎十分受歡迎,但由于收購了摩托羅拉行動(dòng)公司,目前Google 在本質(zhì)上已經(jīng)是一家硬件公司,不過也一直有一些市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)Google公司本身可能已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好制造并銷售自有的智能手機(jī)。

 

如果你認(rèn)為這種想法看來很奇怪(因?yàn)镚oogle已經(jīng)擁有一家智能手機(jī)廠商了),先聽看看這一點(diǎn):根據(jù)紐約時(shí)報(bào)(New York Times)的報(bào)導(dǎo),即使是Facebook也可能打算進(jìn)軍智能手機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)。為什么Facebook要涉足硬件業(yè)務(wù)?因?yàn)橛性絹碓蕉嗟挠脩敉高^行動(dòng)設(shè)備瀏覽該公司的服務(wù),而不再是經(jīng)由一般的計(jì)算機(jī)了,使得這家社群媒體巨擘越來越難追蹤用戶的上網(wǎng)行為以及銷售廣告。

 

即使是蘋果公司 (Apple Inc.)也曾經(jīng)是一家純粹的PC廠商,如今卻改變了幾個(gè)與 iPhone 、 iPad 和 iPod相鄰的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)。事實(shí)上,今天的蘋果公司更像是一家消費(fèi)電子公司,而非PC供貨商。但即使這樣的描述也是不斷變動(dòng)的,因?yàn)樘O果正尋求擴(kuò)展在其它終端市場(chǎng)的影響力。

 

無線手持設(shè)備和運(yùn)算設(shè)備市場(chǎng)明顯地正快速成長(zhǎng),而廠商的產(chǎn)品組合與樣貌改變,則顯示在此領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)們將不斷重新定義其所認(rèn)同的核心業(yè)務(wù)。

 

對(duì)于微軟來說,作為一家純軟件公司的日子已經(jīng)一去不復(fù)返了。今天,它已經(jīng)被迫得混合硬件與軟件,才能保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。與諾基亞針對(duì)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的結(jié)盟,為它帶來一個(gè)能夠讓移動(dòng)設(shè)備開始采用Windows操作系統(tǒng)的好機(jī)會(huì),只不過至今的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)冷淡。因此,一款微軟品牌的平板PC或智能手機(jī)可望顛覆游戲規(guī)則,讓微軟變得比蘋果OS或 Android都更具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

 

微軟所能做的選擇之一是直接收購諾基亞。微軟擁有足以支持這一行動(dòng)的資金(最近一季約有600億美元現(xiàn)金與短期投資)與市場(chǎng)價(jià)值,加上所要進(jìn)行收購的目標(biāo)現(xiàn)在又處于負(fù)傷累累的求生模式下。諾基亞公司和微軟公司的市值分別是100億美元和2,500億美元。微軟將會(huì)采取收購諾基亞的行動(dòng)嗎?我對(duì)此感到懷疑,但卻不感到意外。

 

Should Microsoft Buy Nokia or Make Its Own Smartphone?

Bolaji Ojo

 

Speculations have gripped the market in recent days that Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) may begin making its own tablet PC and smartphone as it continues efforts to propagate the Windows operating system.

I wouldn't bet against either this or even the possibility the company may purchase Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), its troubled partner in the wireless communications equipment market. In fact, if Microsoft wants to take the lead in being disruptive and making Windows OS competitive, I believe it should bring Nokia firmly under its wings.

 

Microsoft won't be new to the hardware business and is probably better prepared to extend its brand into newer areas than many of the companies that have ventured into tablet PCs and suffered significant setbacks, including Hewlett-Packard and Research in Motion.

Although primarily a software company and the dominant competitor in the PC operating system segment, Microsoft has also established itself as a major player in the gaming market with the Xbox, in addition to selling other hardware, including keyboard, mouse, and branded headphones. The extensive supply chain network the company has built for the Xbox can easily be leveraged to support other equipment the company may want to introduce in future. Click here for a list of Microsoft products.

 

I suspect for several reasons Microsoft may have no options but to dive headlong into the communications equipment market with its own products and rather than through surrogates as it has so far done. The profile of the traditional OEM is changing rapidly with former partners morphing into rivals and new alliances and support systems being constantly forged in the rapidly evolving market.

The expertise available at electronic manufacturing services (EMS) providers, coupled with off-the-shelf IP from companies like ARM Ltd. (Nasdaq: ARMHY; London: ARM) as well as offerings from fabless chipmakers, which in turn get support from semiconductor wafer foundries like TSMC, has made it easy for companies like Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, and Walmart to stray well beyond their traditional markets to embrace hardware products. Even companies that could be described as regular OEMs are enlarging the pool of products they offer in response to changing customer needs.

 

Companies like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), for instance, have changed the way we look at service providers. The acquisition of Motorola Mobility Inc. (NYSE: MMI) by Google, for example, is still reverberating in the wireless equipment market, while its introduction of the Android operating system has contributed to the displacement of Nokia as market leader in favor of Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC). Google, while more popular for its search engine, is essentially today a hardware company via the acquisition of Motorola Mobility, but there are ongoing speculations the company itself may be getting ready to make and sell its own smartphones.

 

If this idea seems strange (since Google already owns a smartphone vendor), consider this: Even Facebook may get into the smartphone business, according to a report in the New York Times. Why should Facebook get into the hardware business? Because more people are accessing the company's services via mobile devices than on regular computers, making it difficult for the social media company to track users and sell advertising against their online behavior.

 

Even Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), once a purely PC company, has changed the dynamics of several adjacent markets with the iPhone, the iPad, and the iPod. It's fair to say today that Apple is more of a consumer electronics company than a PC vendor. But even that description is in flux as Apple seeks to expand its influence into other end markets. On EBN, one of our more successful blogs -- in terms of page views -- is a report that speculated on new directions Apple might take that could supercharge any of a bunch of currently dull markets. (See: Apple's Next Big Thing Will Be Huge.)

 

The wireless handset and computing equipment market is obviously evolving too rapidly, and the changing profile of the players indicates enterprises in this area will continue to redefine whatever they consider their core operations.

For Microsoft, its days as a software-only company are over. It is today compelled to mix up hardware and software to remain competitive. The alliance with Nokia in the smartphone market gives it a good opportunity to light a fuse under Windows OS for mobile devices, but the market response has so far been lukewarm. A Microsoft-branded tablet PC or smartphone might be the game-changer the company needs to be more competitive against Apple OS and Android.

 

One option Microsoft has is to simply purchase Nokia. It has the funds ($60 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the March quarter) and the market value to support such a transaction. Plus, the target company is wounded and in survival mode. Its market capitalization has dropped to less than $10 billion versus $250 billion for Microsoft. Will Microsoft make such a move? I doubt it, but I wouldn't be surprised.

 

 

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